March Madness Trends: 3 To Trust And 3 To Avoid

Most seed-versus-seed outcomes need to be taken with a grain of salt (and a shot of tequila followed by a lime wedge), however there's no denying the No. 12 versus No. 5 March Madness pattern. Despite the randomness, this pairing continues to produce profits for those choosing the No. 12 seed - a minimum of against the spread.


Since 2012, No. 5 seeds are 27-21 SU versus No. 12 seeds and 20-27-1 ATS in those opening-round matchups. Over the previous five Big Dances (remembering we didn't have one in 2020), No. 5 seeds are 12-8 SU and 9-11 ATS, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the 2024 tournament Round of 64.


Don't simply blindly bank on No. 12 seeds over No. 5's but treat this pattern with regard - like handling a cobra.


Three trends to fade


There's a surplus of shallow March Madness wagering trends out there that you need to never ever blindly route when placing your bets or building your bracket. Here's the suggestion of the iceberg.


Conference trends


Certain conferences will have stronger historical ATS records in the NCAA Tournament, but the teams, opponents, gamers and spreads all vary when constructing out this bull crap. The total strength of conferences sways every year, so do not go chasing after the SEC teams or fading ACC schools based solely on those conferences' counts against the spread.


Seed vs. Seed trends


We have actually singled out the No. 5-versus-No. 12 pattern, which damaged a lot of "smart" brackets with all four No. 5 seeds advancing in 2023. Bettors need to tread lightly with that information and more so with other patterns around seed-versus-seed. The level of parity in college basketball appears to be widening by the season, so don't base a bet solely on the Selection Committee's .


Point spread and Over/Under trends


Brace yourself for some doozies when it comes to any historical NCAA Tournament trends powered by spreads and totals. You'll get tantalizing trends around the Round of 64 underdogs between a certain point range and Over/Under pointers based upon previous overalls from certain seeding matches.


As discussed, some trends can lead you down the best handicapping road however a number of these take you and your bankroll to a dead end. Be hesitant of these trends and look into the past results that powered them. If you can, attempt to find a narrative behind them that might roll over into this year's March Madness field.


How sportsbooks treat March Madness patterns


Perhaps the very best way to evaluate how useful March Madness wagering trends are is to look at the folks setting the odds for March Madness.


If you ask an oddsmaker if they're factoring in the past against the spread (ATS) success of No. 15 seeds into this year's No. 2-versus-No. 15 matchup odds, they'll likely laugh in your face. Bookmakers mostly disregard historical patterns, particularly in college sports, as player and skill turnover varies considerably from year-to-year.


Oddsmakers base their numbers on existing kind and information from that season instead of historical hoo-ha pulling from random teams with random gamers led by random coaches from random conferences dipping into random sites. You get the concept.


The verdict on March Madness trends


Basketball bettors need to be careful of many March Madness trends. While betting on them blindly is bonkers, there are lessons to be gained from assessing them and picking up on previous patterns.


Veteran handicapper Marc Lawrence has an enormous sports betting database that pumps out multiple March Madness betting trends every year. And while he doesn't get on board all those with his NCAA Tournament bets, he sees the worth in what he calls "preparing for expectancy".


"There is a factor that Winston Churchill said, 'Those who stop working to gain from history are destined duplicate it,'" Lawrence states. "By discovering failures and successes from the past and applying abilities from today, we progress, well-rounded handicappers. Yes, teams change, however methods and patterns are extremely predictive ... By counting on past patterns, we can much better expect expectancy."


March Madness betting websites


March Madness is an incredibly popular time of year for sports wagerers and one of the busiest for online sportsbooks. With every betting website offering March Madness odds, it is essential to understand which are safe and protected, use a wide variety of banking choices, and give you a lots of markets for each game. Have a look at the best March Madness betting websites in your region, examined by Covers' team of knowledgeable experts.